Saturday, January 23, 2016

Ninth planet calculations and a myth, but no certainty – L’Express

The solar system would again have a “ninth planet” in its ranks … A few years after the demotion of Pluto, here that American scientists from the California Institute of Technology (Caltech) have calculated the presence of this new body ten times more massive than Earth. One hypothesis greeted with much excitement that skepticism, for several reasons.

A prediction is not – yet – a discovery

The new “ninth planet” in the solar system has not discovered in the strict sense. “This is not a prediction but a discovery,” says Francis Rocard, head of Solar System exploration program at CNES (CNES). And this prediction is already a star in social networks, where one fights for the name “Nexus”, “Azeroth” or “Pluto II” …

The hypothesis of its existence that thicken through mathematical calculations of the US team that signs the article about him in the Astronomical Journal . His “gravitational signature” would explain anomalies in and inclined elliptical orbits of several objects “trans-Neptunian”, this collection very cold bodies located beyond Neptune, like Pluto, Eric, Haumea or Sedna.

The trans-Neptunian objects are beyond the orbit of Neptune.

The trans-Neptunian objects are beyond the orbit of Neptune.

Wikicommons

To be understood by the common man: the invisible force that it would exercise would result in the alignment of the orbit of six objects of the Kuiper Belt on the same plan. The probability of this configuration is that of 0,007 in 100 chance … without a giant magnet.

Discover this planet will be difficult

We should see this “ninth planet” to be certain that it exists. And this observation must be confirmed to avoid ad then contradicted, like the myriad of exoplanets discovered by Kepler, some of which finally as false positives.

But after all, the calculations also preceded the observation in the case of Neptune and Pluto, discovered in 1846 and in 1930. While patient … Except that unlike these two past examples, astronomers from the California Institute of Technology “does not say where to look on a vast orbit, says Francis Rocard. Orbit that takes 10 000-20 000 years to go, against 365 days, or 250 Earth years for Pluto.

The return of the return of “Planet X”

It is the solar system Arlesienne: Planet X . No, this hypothetical object has nothing to do with the Bogdanov brothers. True myth enthusiasts spatial discoveries, distant “Planet X” would be large enough to explain the anomalies of other body orbits already known, incompatible with the law of gravitation of Newton. This “hide and seek game” lasts for a while now …

Since the discovery of Uranus in 1781, irregularities in its orbit (trajectory, velocity) leads astronomers to think that Planet X. His hunt was first led to the discovery of Neptune in 1846. But the estimated mass of the latter could not explain the anomalies of Uranus. Back calculations for astronomers theorize that … the presence of Pluto. But its discovery in 1930 surprised: the dwarf planet can not be responsible only orbital irregularities of his comrades.

In 1992, the discovery of a string of “trans-Neptunian” objects in the outer solar system recovery hypothesis: Why a giant planet would not have slipped from asteroids and comets, au Beyond the Kuiper Belt? Could this be the “ninth planet” who fantasize microcosm for a few days?

NASA does not really believe

“It is too early to say that ‘Planet X’ is there, “slice Jim Green, Director of Planetary Science at NASA, while welcoming this announcement” stimulates healthy debate “.

The myth, which made many indirect services to scientific research, has even been literally killed by NASA in March 2014. The WISE telescope had just probe the area to infrared rays, without finding any object the size of Saturn within 10 000 astronomical units (AU), or 10,000 times the Sun-Earth distance. And objects of the Jupiter size within 26 000 AU.

“There is probably no large gas planet in the distant part of the solar system,” announced a NASA specialist at the end of this campaign. The data collected by WISE will also not possible to find the hypothetical sisters stars the Sun, called Nemesis and Tyche, whose presence could explain anomalies in the trajectories of asteroids and comets.

What if these calculations were not complete or righteous?

The existence of this “ninth planet” is derived from the American astronomers calculations, based on six orbits of objects in the Kuiper Belt … But do these data are correct ? Are they complete? “We do not know all the objects in the Kuiper Belt, and it would be enough to find six other with opposite orbits to explain the observed clustering of perihelion,” suggests Sky and Space.

The trade magazine also announced the forthcoming publication of a contradictory study in preparation for the Nice Observatory and the IMCCE, Paris. “We worked with the orbits of Saturn and Jupiter, recent data obtained by the Cassini probe. And we do not get the same results than them,” said Agnes Fienga, this French researcher team. Sky and Space adds that “the data would show the impossibility of finding a massive planet at a distance of less than 1200 AU. Either the maximum that of Caltech.” In short: this is inconsistent.

So who is right? As long as nobody saw the “ninth planet” impossible to decide. And, according to Alessandro Morbidelli, research director at CNRS established the Observatory of the Côte d’Azur, told 20 minutes , it could take “ten to fifteen years.” Patience and time …

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