the reconstruction of landscape of telecom operators in France will not take place but leaves a bitter taste to some while others grow a sigh of relief. The failure of negotiations between Orange and Bouygues for the acquisition of the telecom subsidiary of construction group could leave traces in a consolidation quest sector in Europe, while the agreement was presented as favorable to all stakeholders.
What are the winners and losers of an aborted upheaval whose complexity has proved too high, leading to the stalemate after three months of intense negotiations yet?
the losers
- Bouygues fails for the fourth time to marry his telecom subsidiaries, which suffered most from the arrival of Free in January 2012 on the telephony market with its strategy of cut-price packages. Its subsidiary will have to rebound in a market with four operators in motivation and achieve its 7,500 employees. Having undergone a drastic social in 2014, they are buffeted for two years by rumors or aborted and successive attempts at rapprochement with Free, SFR and Orange. Pursuing his solo activity, Bouygues Telecom remains an important facilitator of competition in the mobile and fixed, with its offers and aggressive promotions. But its telecom subsidiary must retain its ability to invest in maintaining its margins. His term economic equation will remain difficult to resolve in a market with four operators.
- The state could expect medium-term rapprochement consolidating a market that would have ensured sustainability three operators, ability to generate financial results generators tax consequences for companies. Shareholder of Orange, he could also expect a recovery up and additional dividends in his wallet. Finally, the State can not claim to have helped stabilize the telecoms market. This would have allowed the three remaining operators, less subjected to a war of incessant prices, improve 3G coverage and 4G of French and accelerate the deployment of fiber throughout the territory, part of the promises of Francois Hollande.
- In case of agreement, SFR escomptait recover much of the general public Bouygues customers in the mobile and fixed. According to reports, the operator would have been ready to recover both ADSL subscribers and / or optical fiber and clients of the low cost brand BandYou. These customers would definitely times sitting position number two telecoms after losing throughout 2015 almost one million mobile subscribers (mostly prepaid service). He can also say goodbye to the recovery of part of the business customers Bouygues Telecom Company, although it would have raised eyebrows the Competition Authority, given the dominant position occupied orange and SFR on this market.
The winners
- The consumer’s interest in status quo that sees four French operators maintain their policies tariff rebates to win new customers. In mobile, when an operator pulls an aggressive new offer price, at least one of its competitors to align the following, their goal being to change the subscriber operator especially when n ‘ is not bound by a contract. In recent weeks, mobile package offers without commitment multiply at 3.99 euros per month for a year, from SFR and Bouygues. The consumer remains the largest beneficiary of this trade war.
- The 11 million mobile customers and 2.8 million fixed Bouygues Telecom customers had to breathe a sigh of relief on hearing the redemption of failure their operator Orange. Given the division of assets contemplated, some would be found in Orange, SFR or others at Free. If the case had been concluded, it would have imposed an uncertainty among all customers of Bouygues, the operator that the “recover” and the conditions made to them at the time of change. Not to mention the problems linked to the migration process (technical and commercial) of such a large subscriber base, divided among several other operators: network change, box, subscription, contract, etc .. .
- Free, involved in the recovery of part of the frequency and mobile network Bouygues Telecom, took only a few hours to react to the failure of negotiations while SFR remained quiet. The direction of the operator, who expresses no regret, said “continue its development including an acceleration of the deployment of high speed fixed and mobile networks.” In fact, it seems that although the resumption of mobile frequencies and antennas would have made him gain time to strengthen the coverage of its 3G network and 4G, Free really needs high points on roofs or water towers to ask its antennas. In addition, it is the process of recovering frequency 3G and 4G in the rebalancing that ARCEP operates in its favor since has less frequency than its rivals for historical reasons. Finally, if agreed with rivals on asset sharing, Free found himself more or less “forced” to recover all or part of the 550 points of sales physical Bouygues with between 1,000 and 2,000 employees integrate. Now it has 50 own stores currently in France, which corresponds to its business model. It is not sure that the operator would have taken heart gaiety all these stores and their employees.
Frederic BERGÉ
Grand refer
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