5 July 2030 Man sets foot on Mars. After decades of research and more than seven months of travel, he finally reached its Martian goal. At least on movie screens or in the dreams of astronauts, who are already put beside the Curiosity robot for posterity, after the announcement of the discovery of salt water on Mars.
In 2010, when Barack Obama spoke of 2035, Buzz Aldrin already urged the US president to keep pace or even accelerate it. The second astronaut to set foot on the Moon soil openly promotes a round trip from Earth-Mars 2018, to length of interviews and books, between two sales Tshirts “Get your ass to Mars “ (” Bring your ass to Mars “, literally).
The US has already managed to put probes and robots, like here Curiosity on Mars … But a human mission is a good deal different.
REUTERS / NASA / JPL-Caltech / MSSS / Handout
An astronomical bill
The desire is there, then, but how? “ A mission to Mars, the most difficult to date in terms of technology remains out of reach of most of the players involved,” Judge Jean-Yves Le Gall, president of CNES, even play the role of killjoy. “If we really had to go, it would not be before 2050. Maybe in 2057, for the 100 years of Sputnik!” Quips Jacques Villain, author of Will we one day really on Mars? (Ed. Vuibert, 2011). “We talk about human missions to Mars since 70 years but we ask exactly the same questions in 30 years … There is a lot of fantasy around this issue, but I see no momentum.”
Starting with financial dynamics. “It is estimated between 100 and 300 billion cost of such a mission. This amount is also difficult to gather that acceptance … And this imprecision demonstrates how we are not ripe to do” said Jean-Yves Le Gall. Even less optimistic, Jacques Villain inflates the bill up “500-600 billion.” An astronomical amount that “the first dollar were made by any of five successive US presidents have talked about going to Mars,” the specialist said that “it is the US Congress who vote, anyway” .
But there are some major differences between Barack Obama and his predecessors: the current political climate is dominated by the economic crisis and the ecological emergency. How to make space exploration a priority in this context, without the Cold War background, had whetted the appetite for the Moon of the United States and the USSR? For specialists consulted by L’Express, there is more political issue: the sole interest of such a mission is scientific and is to show that “we know how”.
15 years to achieve a “giant space train”
Hard to sell to public opinion … to provided that, for now, we do not know how. “It would require a disruptive technology”, asserts Jean-Yves Le Gall. And if the discovery of brackish water on Mars, NASA announced on Monday, gave the necessary impetus? Some are already imagining that one could “desalting water dunes to supply drinking a scientific base on Mars,” we read in Liberation.
It is further necessary being able to go to the red planet and back. The SLS rocket being developed could be used, but “it would take another 10-15 years to build a ship,” anticipates Jacques Villain. And what ship … “We will not send six people confined for two years in total, in a Renault Twingo. You have to imagine a remake of 2001 Space Odyssey , a sort of giant space train fitted with artificial gravity, a sufficiently large living area, a kitchen garden, etc. It’s huge! “describes Jean-Yves Le Gall.
Keep the crew healthy
would remain the question of radiation, the need to gain speed to reduce the duration of the journey, the impact such a trip on the muscles and bones of the crew … Not to mention their sanity, in such promiscuity during these two years, when the individual record of 438 days in space.
Would come also the problem landing, the most difficult step of this journey. Countless probes, Soviet, Chinese or American, who paid the price for decades. “The atmosphere is so thin and little known that the behavior of the sensors is difficult to predict,” said the President of CNES. “And ask a probe of 200-300 kg, it’s not the same story that pose a vessel of 10-20 tons,” added Jacques Villain.
A long international cast to negotiate
But the United States keep a step ahead of other players in the race. “Americans have created models … and managed to land their probes, where others have experienced failures. The first man on Mars has a 90% chance to be an American,” predicted Jean-Yves Le Gall . As the actor Matt Damon, hero of the film Only on Mars , which tops the list of paris on the Internet …
This does not prevent American domination of India grow bolder and photograph the Martian surface with its orbiter Mangalyaan since 2014, history to race with China, which itself is the moon. European side, the ExoMars program plans to send an orbiter in 2016 and a probe to the ground in 2018, not to mention private Mars One program that has little chance of success but could help lower the costs of a future human mission.
Not enough to panic NASA, which still calls for international collaboration to go to Mars, just to split the bill. It’s a safe bet that the film production as cast 2030: The Mars Odyssey will be international. But who says collegial decision, said additional diplomatic period! If Mars is a destination rooted in the collective imagination for decades, so it seems unrealistic to expect to see on our screens the film of adventure before 2030 or even 2035. No offense to Buzz Aldrin and Hollywood .
No comments:
Post a Comment