The quarterly French GDP growth
seasonally adjusted data
The first INSEE growth estimates released Friday August 14 is a blow to the government, with zero growth expected for the second quarter 2015.
This stagnation can be explained by a very low growth in household consumption (+ 0.1% ) and a strong negative contribution to growth from changes in business inventories (- 0.4 points), despite a positive effect of domestic demand (0.1 points) and foreign trade (0.3 points)
With an increase of slightly revalued for the first quarter GDP (0.7% instead of 0.6%) and “acquired growth” 0.8% at 30 June, the government believes that the objective of 1% growth for the year 2015 is “reinforced” , and could even be exceeded.
The good news comes from the creation of 27 300 jobs in the market sector in the second quarter (+ 0.2%) thanks to services and temporary – the largest quarterly increase since early 2011. The market sector has thus stabilized on a year with 4,200 job cuts from a total of 15.9 million.
In an article in World , the finance minister, Michel Sapin, believes that “after three years without real growth, the recovery is spreading in the economy”
“Recognize [...] that the growth figure of 2 th quarter, disappointing at first sight, comes after a 1 st dynamic quarter, and that beyond the jolts from one quarter to another, inevitable in any restart phase, the recovery is indeed committed in France
This result is not only the fruit of an “astral alignment” favorable. – oil low, low interest rates, low euro. It is primarily the result of a deliberate policy: with the competitive employment tax credit (CICE) and the first stage of the pact of responsibility and solidarity, it is 20 billion euros have already been returned to businesses. The investment support plan, including the measurement of “excessive dampening” is implemented since April.
Backed by lower energy prices, the margin rate companies has already taken two thirds of the ground lost between 2007 and 2012. That is what restore export market share for our businesses, that’s what investing and hiring! “
MP Hauts-de-Seine Thierry Solère (The Republicans), “all indicators are bad and unfortunately it will remain like that until the government will not take the right steps, that is to say, lower the cost of work and make the country more competitive. “
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