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This is the welcome gift from China to heads of state and government invited to Hangzhou for the G20 summit, on 4 and 5 September, the ratification of the Paris agreement on climate. After the Chinese Parliament, the National Popular Assembly, adopted Saturday, September 3 in the morning, at the closing of its bimonthly session, the outcome of the COP21, the White House has in turn announced the ratification of the text by Washington . This step should allow President Xi Jinping to announce even today in Hangzhou, with his US counterpart Barack Obama, who arrived in the early afternoon of Hawaii, the two countries are now bound by the commitment made in Paris in December 2015 to fight against global warming.
This rallying of the two biggest polluters of the planet is a major breakthrough. According to UN accounts, China alone accounted for 20% of global emissions of greenhouse gases, the United States will contribute about 18%.
Added to 1% represented by small island states most prompt ratification; to 2.5% of Brazil, the Congress approved the text on August 11; to 0.9% of Argentina, who did the same on September 2 that are now more than 42% of emissions of greenhouse gases listed in the field of the agreement.
Infographic: Climate: after the ratification of the United States and China, where is the Paris agreement?
What about India?
For the most optimistic observers, the Chinese decision of 3 September raised hopes that the threshold necessary for the implementation of decisions of Paris – 55 countries, representing at least 55% of global emissions – will be reached before the end of the year. “This announcement means that the Paris agreement is close to becoming reality. China wants to build momentum for the G20 to push the other countries invited to ratify the agreement, “ estimated Li Shuo, chief adviser on climate issues for Greenpeace China.
“the significant and consistent decline in coal consumption was confirmed in 2016, for the third consecutive year. China will not regain the levels of the past, “ he says to explain the conversion of the first Asian economy to low-carbon energy. China’s commitment to Paris late 2015 had been obtained from relatively conservative goals -. A peak of CO2 emissions by 2030
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in order to perpetuate the climate policy initiated in his second term, Obama must go fast and indicated in joint presidential announcement of Hangzhou that the United States join them as the Paris agreement. The formulation is not trivial. To “ratify” the text, the Democratic president should have to rely on the Republican Congress, hostile to the measures it has taken to curb global warming. Obama has to choose to “join” the agreement of the COP21 by a presidential decision.
So it is now more than 42% of emissions greenhouse gases listed in the scope of the agreement
“the ratification of China and the US is tremendous news , reacts the French Minister of the environment Ségolène Royal, who chairs the COP to Marrakech in November when France will hand over to Morocco. the commitment of these two major countries will create a positive dynamic that can drag Canada, Australia or India. “
If the threshold of 55% required for the implementation of the agreement is not a chimera, a coming into force by the end of 2016 is far from be gained. “We must accomplish the same feat [than the adoption by 195 countries of the agreement of the COP21] for ratification” , on Thursday launched 1 st September Ségolène Royal diplomats gathered in Paris for the week of ambassadors. “The conditions are close to be met to reach this threshold in Marrakech advance a French diplomatic source. Russia has made it clear that she did not intend to ratify before 2019, but countries facing such as Canada, Australia and Saudi Arabia could however soon ratify the agreement. The main question today lies in the decision of India. “
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Transparency
the issue was discussed at a bilateral meeting between the US and India on August 31, but the choice is difficult for a country whose economic growth relies heavily on coal.
the other puzzle is that the ratification of the European Union, which must fulfill a dual process of the EU and its 28 Member States. The EU should send a political signal by voting on September 8 in commission environment and early October before the European Parliament, the adoption decision of the Paris agreement.
The Sino-US declaration could contain advances in the field of transparency of their respective energy policies. In a report published in 2015, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) estimated that the mining companies of fossil fuels benefited from grants of up to 4740 billion per year: 40% would be the fact of China, 13% of US and 6% of countries in the European Union. However, since the beginning of the year, Chinese and Americans are working on the reality of their subsidies in fossil fuels.
“The issue of transparency of subsidies in fossil fuels has always been a stumbling block in discussions on climate change. So this exercise is essential. Ideally, their key data are made public, we would first of figures from official sources instead of estimates calculated by organizations such as the IMF or the OECD, “ estimated Li Shuo
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