With a strong push, Dr. Emmett Brown propels the scooter H2G2 flanked by a sticker in the driveway of the home of Marty McFly and then climbed the front steps. 
– Great Scott Marty is …
– Terrible yes, as always Doc. It’s Windows Phone. It is 2.7% and Microsoft is 15% in 2018.
– Marty, sometimes you worry me. Put these unnecessary political tracts in the reservoir of the DeLorean. This will be good enough, we stay in 2015. It is the anticipation!
There, that’s for sure, you’ll have severely whip. This is a classic weddings. Initially, all hopes are permitted. We made promises, and too bad if it means a little draw upon a star. The story must be beautiful.
An example? Microsoft and Nokia formalize their merger in September 2013. On that occasion, the leaders of the publisher are convinced that by 2018, Windows Phone will be 15% market share of the mobile OS. A goal that is wince IDC, a very optimistic time since a year earlier the same firm saw WP to 19.2% by 2016.
End 2014, IDC has its accounts and OS Microsoft culminates worldwide to just 2.7%, against 3.3% a year earlier. Okay, but in 2018 it’s not tomorrow. Technically, the Redmond company has not yet missed out on his goal and exercise here therefore takes the Back to the Future anticipation.
Not sure however that scratch the crystal ball by suggesting now that Windows Phone may be a little short. So sneer a bit, it’s our tour. Though. Thomas Husson, senior analyst for Forrester , doing evil spirit, he is careful.
“2018, it is still far Stories are are made and lost in three years. Xiaomi is certainly a very specific actor, but they were created in 2011 and this year they will sell 100 million smartphones. “
It is not wrong . This would not be the first reversal observed in the telephony sector. Some examples? In 2011, HTC was a manufacturer featured at just over 10% market share. BlackBerry and then? This former glory ended 2014 only 0.4% of smartphones shipped. Nokia, long the world leader in mobile, has missed the turn smartphones
– Say Doc , WP z’avez not seen other than on a Lumia
– Oh la la la la la la, Marty.
– What happened to this smartphone
– It will make me crazy !
Yes, but Nokia is precisely that some Microsoft foundations in the mobile devices industry. Gagne is it a race with a wooden leg? “Do not make a cross too fast” invites us once again, Thomas Husson
Please note, there is a but though. “But [Editor's note: you see] actually they did not today a market share at the global level that is meaningful or sufficient for a group like Microsoft. We are still far from the critical size. “
Well certainly There was also positive: “In some countries, not from the park but net acquisition, that is to say over 100 sold smartphones, Windows Phone is 10 to 15%, and 13% in France I believe. “
Arises yet but obviously ambush. “But the real challenge is to reach the critical size, exceeding 10-15% hearing. For brands and developers is the key issue, since it is a matter of hearing First and foremost, as well as prioritization compared to competing ecosystems. “
The results early 2015, in terms of priorities, so it’s iOS, a point of “premium” for Android and in terms of volumes. As for Windows Phone, the main challenge, so this is the famous achieve critical mass “for mayonnaise take alone.”
– You know Doc, mayonnaise I not digest.
– You’re too first degree, that’s your problem Marty. It is a way of saying that the ingredients are there.
– Ah … And they have a good electric mixer at Microsoft?
For the rest, Microsoft is Does it not seem totally helpless. “On the user experience itself, on the interface, supporting developers, capacity for innovation, I think Microsoft has a lot of these bricks then” Judge Thomas Husson.
This part of the park terminals it is imperative to grow as the firm should it go about achieving this? In tightly clasped fingers? No miracle here are manufacturers producing Windows Phone smartphones it takes to Microsoft.
Now, here, the company is still struggling to move away from its foundations. WP “today is over and above all on the Nokia Lumia devices and heart. There has been no further major players, although some supported Windows, market and make co-marketing Windows “said Forrester analyst.
” So we have to do a bit of volume. And that’s why in Barcelona, they announced the terminals 640 and 640XL with a positioning relatively attractive price, maybe not enough for the emerging countries, but quite decent for example, in markets such as France. And what’s interesting in the approach, the bundle with a one-year subscription to Microsoft services. This is an element of differentiation, “he added.
This volume, perhaps it is in China, the first market size for sales smartphones, Microsoft will find it. How? Lenovo will launch this year in the country a range of WP smartphones. With Xiaomi, publisher proposes to test Windows 10 on one of the manufacturer terminals natively on Android. But with just 1% market share in China, there is still some way to go to Microsoft.
“China is more than the US and European markets combined. It No doubt, if we want to make the volume, it must be present on the Chinese market. It is indispensable “can only confirm Thomas Husson.
In markets mature, essentially the renewal markets, “it may be more a sign of a problem, and repositioning of it.” In emerging markets, as in mature markets, a determining factor will be “the ability to properly market their devices.”
– This is all well and good Doc, but the 15%, they go to see the color
-. The early are still out, this is the conclusion
– Do not you wet. And why not go check
2018 -. With political leaflets as fuel, it never goes away Marty
“In the end, it is anyway it makes from park. Consumers do not select a terminal using a user interface, even if the weight of the app store applications and is becoming more important. Regardless, the first criteria are initially centered around the terminal “believes the analyst.
This is not really a revelation, Microsoft needs to quickly announce smartphones and especially just touch, through including “a flagship Windows 10″ who “will reposition Microsoft on the high end.”
And above all, the passenger of the DeLorean ZDNet.fr hope “there will have an expanded product portfolio and competitive enough on the environment and the entry level to the volume. ” Thomas Husson also believes that it will be “all or nothing”.
“Either they manage to reach the critical size to not just be a niche player, and there mayonnaise will take . Otherwise, if the product launches do not allow them to get there, knowing they are already below 5% market share … Actors less than 5%, we saw many disappear [...] I think this will be decided in the next 18 months. “
But Microsoft executives have they not say they were leading in the area of mobility a marathon, not a race? True, but now, “there have been several rounds of heated and begins to approach a critical time.”
List of time hopping episode 3:
& gt; June 7, 2012: Windows Phone No. 2 in 2016
& gt;! September 3, 2013: Nokia – Oops, missed the turn
& gt; September 3, 2013: Microsoft gobbles Nokia
& gt; September 4, 2013: WP 15%? And grandma
& gt bicycle; November 28, 2013: Microsoft, Nokia never without
& gt; July 17, 2014: Hop 12,000 fewer jobs for the mobile
& gt; November 28, 2014: And if you have no WP Nokia
& gt;? February 26, 2015: 2.7% market share: an effort, there is almost
& gt; March 19, 2015: Lenovo will be this year, more or less Xiaomi
To read, Episode 1 of our series – Back to the Future: Email and CSR are in a boat … and CSR falls overboard and episode 2 – Cloudwatt, the sovereign down from his cloud
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