Warming: the world still far from its target of 2 ° – The Obs

Paris (AFP) – The world is moving towards a warming of 2.7 ° C by the end of the century, given the promises to reduce greenhouse gases made by States for the conference Paris, a significant but insufficient progress to avoid devastating consequences.

The objective of 2 ° that has set the international community is therefore still not reached, say experts from Climate Action Tracker (CAT) who compiled the commitments made so far by the States for the COP21, expected to produce early December the first universal agreement against global warming.

This “reflects the inadequacy of climate objectives presented by many countries “, points the CAT in this analysis released Thursday, when 195 States participating in the COP were supposed to have submitted to the UN commitments.

On a positive note, however,” is the first time since 2009, when the CAT began its evaluations, the warming expected drops below 3 ° C, “he notes.

To date, 140 countries, representing some 80% of current emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG), source of global warming, have submitted their emission projections for 2025-2030. Among them, China, the US, the EU, the top 3 world with half the emissions, the quality of the contributions is described as “average” by the CAT.

But to the French negotiator Laurence Tubiana, “141 countries, this is a great sign of accession to the Paris agreement.” “The wave is launched. And we are no longer in specific actions, countries proposing major changes,” she says to AFP, citing “very good surprises” such as Brazil.

Last big contribution expected, that of India, 4th World transmitter, expected by the end of the week.

But to remain under the bar of + 2 ° C compared to the pre-industrial era, the world must do much more to limit its emissions. And it is “pretty unlikely” that the contributions of backward countries take us back to 2 ° C, said Bill Hare of Climate Analytics research institute, member of CAT

-. Jump in the unknown –

According to the projections of the CAT, which takes into account India based on his statements of intent, GHG emissions, currently about 48 billion tonnes annually, should continue to grow. To reach 52-54000000000 tonnes in 2025 and 53-55 billion in 2030, according to the promises made to date.

To keep the target of 2 ° C, they would have to be reduced 11-13 billion tons per year in 2025 and 15-17 billion in 2030.

“The objective of 2 ° may be fundamentally threatened” if the projections for 2030 are not screwed back very early, from 2020, warn researchers.

At the Paris conference, the States must try to agree on mechanisms to curb these emissions, mainly from burning fossil fuels. Already, discussions focus on clauses providing for regular appointments (every 5 years for example) to revise upward their ambitions.

Because “the further away from 2 ° C, more adaptation (to climate change) will be difficult, especially in developing countries, “recalled AFP climatologist Jean Jouzel.

If it reaches 2, 7 °, it is expected to recurrent drought, agricultural productivity slowed or even a potential long-term devastating effects, for example on the melting of the Greenland ice sheet.

“The best way avoid such considerable risks is to stay closer to our current climate, “he says. We need “a change in the states of mind that all investments are placed in the context of a low-carbon economy to be ready for the important effort that will be required in 2030-2050.”

Since the Industrial Revolution, the world has already gained 0.8 ° (about 2 final objective). If nothing is done, it Susceptible, according to the IPCC, to + 3.7 ° to + 4.8 °

A leap into the unknown. Since the last ice age, there 20,000 years the global temperature rose by only 5 ° C.